wber-robustness
GitHub为WBER稿件制定威胁导向的稳健性计划，兼顾计量识别与发展中国家数据质量风险。按威胁组织检查而非罗列附录，涵盖测量误差、样本选择、推断优化等，旨在提升结果可信度。
Trigger Scenarios
Install
npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills --skill wber-robustness -g -y
SKILL.md
Frontmatter
{
"name": "wber-robustness",
"description": "Use when results for a The World Bank Economic Review (WBER) manuscript may be sensitive to specification, sample, measurement, or inference choices — and you need a threat-organized robustness plan rather than an appendix dump. Organizes checks by identifying threat and by data-quality risks specific to developing-country data; it does not run the estimation."
}
Robustness Strategy (wber-robustness)
When to trigger
- The headline result moves under reasonable alternative specifications
- A referee could question measurement quality (survey error, recall, attrition, undercoverage)
- Inference is shaky: few clusters, spatial correlation, multiple outcomes
- The robustness appendix is a long mechanical list with no logic
- You need to know which checks are load-bearing before submission
The WBER robustness philosophy
WBER referees are sophisticated about both econometric threats and the realities of developing-country data — surveys with recall and measurement error, administrative records with coverage gaps, sampling frames that miss the informal sector, attrition in panels. So robustness here has two axes: the standard identification-threat axis (does the estimate survive plausible violations of the design's key assumption?) and a data-quality axis (does the result survive how the data were actually constructed and measured?). Organize the section by threat, not by a checklist; each check should answer "if a skeptic believed X, would my conclusion change?"
Organize by threat, not by appendix
| Threat the referee has in mind | The check that answers it |
|---|---|
| "Your design assumption is violated" | Design-specific sensitivity: honest-DiD bounds (parallel trends), bandwidth/donut (RD), Anderson–Rubin (weak IV), Oster δ / coefficient stability (selection on unobservables) |
| "It's driven by a few units/regions/years" | Leave-one-out (drop each cluster/region/wave); influential-observation checks |
| "Your key variable is mismeasured" | Alternative survey waves/sources; reconcile admin vs. survey; bound classical and non-classical measurement error |
| "The sample is selected / undercovers" | Reweight to a known population; bound for non-coverage of the informal/rural sector; differential-attrition bounds |
| "Inference is too optimistic" | Wild-cluster bootstrap (few clusters); spatial-HAC (Conley) for geographic correlation; multiple-hypothesis adjustment (Romano–Wolf / sharpened q-values) |
| "Results are p-hacked across specs" | Specification curve / multiverse showing the headline is modal, not cherry-picked |
Data-quality robustness (the development-specific layer)
- Measurement: consumption, income, and yields in LDC surveys are noisy and often non-classically mismeasured (e.g., underreporting). Show the result survives alternative recall windows, deflators, or an independent data source.
- Coverage and frame: if the sampling frame misses the informal sector or remote areas, bound how much that could move the estimate.
- Currency/price comparability: when pooling across countries or years, show robustness to PPP conversion, deflator choice, and exchange-rate regime.
- Seasonality: agricultural and labor outcomes are seasonal; show timing of measurement does not drive the result.
Sequencing the robustness section
Order matters for how a WBER referee reads the section:
- Lead with the design-violation sensitivity — the check that addresses the headline identifying assumption (honest-DiD, RD bandwidth, Oster δ). This is what the identification referee turns to first.
- Then the data-quality checks — measurement, coverage, currency — the development-specific layer the policy referee scrutinizes.
- Then influence and inference — leave-one-out, wild bootstrap, spatial-HAC, multiple testing.
- Close with the specification curve — a single figure that says "the headline is modal, not cherry-picked."
State in the main text which one or two checks are load-bearing; relegate the mechanical remainder to the appendix (which still counts against the 40-page cap).
Execution bridge (StatsPAI / Stata MCP)
Run the battery, don't just enumerate it. Full map:
execution-with-mcp. WBER is development economics — RCTs and observational designs in low/middle-income settings; randomization inference + DiD/IV, magnitude in policy units.
- Many outcomes / specifications:
romano_wolf(step-down FWER) orbenjamini_hochberg. - OVB sensitivity:
oster_delta/sensemakr. - Inference:
wild_cluster_bootstrap(few clusters),twoway_cluster/conley. - Re-fit off one handle:
audit_result(result_id)lists missing checks + the exactsuggest_functionfor each. - Exhibits:
etable/did_summary_to_latexfrom the handle — no retyped numbers.
Decisive checks in the body, exhaustive battery in the appendix. JF execution walkthrough.
Checklist
- Section is organized by identifying threat, each with a one-line "if skeptic believes X" rationale
- Design-specific sensitivity reported (honest-DiD / RD bandwidth / weak-IV-robust / Oster)
- Leave-one-out across the dimension a referee would suspect (region/cohort/wave)
- Key variable's measurement stress-tested against an alternative source or definition
- Inference hardened for few clusters and spatial correlation; multiple testing adjusted
- A specification curve shows the headline is modal, not hand-picked
- Cross-country/year comparisons robust to PPP/deflator/seasonality
- The main text states which one or two checks are load-bearing
Anti-patterns
- A 30-row robustness appendix with no statement of which threat each row addresses
- Reporting only specifications that strengthen the result (no specification curve)
- Ignoring few-cluster / spatial inference and over-reporting precision
- Treating LDC survey data as if it were clean administrative data (no measurement-error check)
- Pooling countries without checking PPP/deflator sensitivity
- Burying a result-killing check in the appendix instead of confronting it in the text
Worked vignette (illustrative)
A poverty-targeting paper finds a transfer raises consumption by 11%. A referee suspects the result is an artifact of consumption being measured with a 7-day recall in treated rounds and a 30-day recall in control rounds. Rather than add a generic robustness row, the authors re-estimate within rounds that share a recall window, show the effect holds (10%, illustrative), and bound the recall-induced bias. They then run leave-one-region-out (effect stable except in one district they flag), wild-cluster bootstrap for the 14 clusters, and a specification curve showing the 11% is modal across deflator and outlier-trim choices. Each check is tied to a named skeptic.
Distinguishing robustness from a sensitivity analysis
WBER referees separate two things the appendix often conflates:
- Robustness asks "is my point estimate stable across reasonable choices?" — alternative specs, samples, definitions. The answer should be "yes, the headline is modal."
- Sensitivity asks "how far can the identifying assumption fail before my conclusion flips?" — honest-DiD breakdown, Oster's δ, weak-IV-robust sets. The answer is a quantified bound on how much violation the result survives.
Both belong in a WBER paper, but they answer different referee worries; label them as such. A long list of point-estimate-stable specifications does not address an identification-violation worry, and a single sensitivity bound does not show the result is not specification-mined.
Output format
【Headline result】point estimate + inference
【Threats addressed】design-violation / few-units / measurement / coverage / inference / p-hacking
【Design sensitivity】honest-DiD / RD bandwidth / weak-IV / Oster δ
【Data-quality checks】recall/source/coverage/PPP/seasonality results
【Inference hardening】wild bootstrap / Conley / multiple-testing
【Load-bearing checks】the 1–2 that matter most
【Next step】wber-tables-figures
Version History
- 1839142 Current 2026-07-05 14:31
