poq-theory-and-hypotheses
GitHub用于构建公共舆论季度刊（POQ）论文的理论论证与假设。适用于实质性或方法论文章，明确构造、机制及可证伪假设，确保测量效度并规避HARKing等常见错误。
Trigger Scenarios
Install
npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills --skill poq-theory-and-hypotheses -g -y
SKILL.md
Frontmatter
{
"name": "poq-theory-and-hypotheses",
"description": "Use when building the theoretical argument and hypotheses of a Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ) manuscript — whether the contribution is to opinion\/communication theory or to survey methodology. POQ rewards explicit constructs, mechanisms, and testable hypotheses, and methods papers need a clear claim about a survey-error source. Structures the argument; it does not run analyses."
}
Theory & Hypotheses (poq-theory-and-hypotheses)
At POQ a result is not a contribution until it is attached to a clear claim — about how opinion forms or moves, how communication shapes it, or how a survey-design choice affects measurement. This skill turns findings into theory: explicit constructs, mechanisms, and falsifiable hypotheses, in the idiom appropriate to a substantive or a methodological paper.
When to trigger
- The empirics are strong but the "so what / why" is thin
- A reviewer said the paper is "atheoretical," "ad hoc," or "just a finding"
- You need to state constructs, mechanisms, and hypotheses explicitly
- A methods paper needs a precise claim about which survey-error source it addresses
Build the argument (by kind of paper)
Substantive opinion / communication paper
- Concept — define the attitude, behavior, or communication construct precisely; distinguish it from neighbors (attitude vs. non-attitude, opinion vs. knowledge, exposure vs. reception).
- Mechanism — the process: how information, identity, framing, or context moves the opinion.
- Hypotheses — directional, falsifiable predictions tied to the mechanism, with the null that a rival account or measurement artifact would imply.
- Scope conditions — population, period, and context where the claim holds.
Survey-methodology paper
- State the survey-error source at issue (coverage, nonresponse, measurement, mode, weighting) and the specific bias or variance claim you make about it.
- Frame the hypothesis in Total Survey Error terms: which error component changes, in which direction, under which design choice.
- Distinguish predictions unique to your account from those a competing methods explanation shares.
The measurement-validity test (POQ-specific)
For the central construct, write one sentence: "My measure captures ___ and not ___; if it were instead picking up a measurement artifact (wording / order / mode / nonresponse), I would see ___." If you cannot, the construct is not yet pinned down — strengthen measurement before hypothesizing.
Anti-patterns
- "Hypothesizing after results are known" (HARKing) — state hypotheses before tests; preregister where possible
- Treating a survey artifact (wording, order, mode) as if it were a substantive opinion effect
- Mechanisms named but never made observable / testable
- Universal claims with no scope conditions or population
- A methods paper with no explicit claim about which error source it improves
Theory pass for Public Opinion Quarterly
Run this as a concrete capability pass. First lock the public-opinion construct, sampling frame, mode effects, weighting/nonresponse plan, and trend or causal interpretation; then test whether the manuscript addresses survey and public-opinion reviewers who inspect measurement, sampling, mode, nonresponse, and inference about attitudes or behavior.
- Primary move: Link every hypothesis to a mechanism, rival account, boundary condition, and observable implication; drop hypotheses that only restate correlations.
- Decision ledger: return
claim / evidence / blocker / next editrows so the next pass can patch the manuscript directly. - Sibling comparison: compare against Political Analysis for methods-first work, Journal of Politics for political-science theory, Communication Research for media-effects framing; if the neighboring outlet has the stronger audience claim, recommend re-routing before polishing.
- Verification floor: before submission-ready advice, re-open
resources/official-source-map.mdfor volatile rules and name the one unresolved fact that could change the recommendation.
Output format
【Kind】substantive-opinion / survey-methodology
【Core claim】one sentence
【Construct(s)】defined + distinguished from neighbors
【Mechanism / error source】the process or the TSE component at issue
【Hypotheses】directional + the null / artifact alternative
【Scope conditions】population / period / context
【Next】poq-survey-design-and-measurement
Supplementary resources
../../resources/external_tools.md— measurement, scaling, and TSE references../../resources/official-source-map.md— POQ scope and contribution expectations
Version History
- 1839142 Current 2026-07-05 14:17
