Agent Skills › winstonkoh87/Athena-Public › trading-risk-gate

trading-risk-gate

GitHub

统一交易前置风控关卡，整合破产检查、遍历性审计和胜率主导验证。通过三阶段流水线评估交易安全性，若风险过高则否决，确保资金与生存安全。

examples/skills/decision/trading-risk-gate/SKILL.md winstonkoh87/Athena-Public

Trigger Scenarios

询问交易是否安全评估风险偏好检查破产概率验证遍历性风险对比胜率与盈亏比

Install

npx skills add winstonkoh87/Athena-Public --skill trading-risk-gate -g -y

More Options

Non-standard path

npx skills add https://github.com/winstonkoh87/Athena-Public/tree/main/examples/skills/decision/trading-risk-gate -g -y

Use without installing

npx skills use winstonkoh87/Athena-Public@trading-risk-gate

指定 Agent (Claude Code)

npx skills add winstonkoh87/Athena-Public --skill trading-risk-gate -a claude-code -g -y

安装 repo 全部 skill

npx skills add winstonkoh87/Athena-Public --all -g -y

预览 repo 内 skill

npx skills add winstonkoh87/Athena-Public --list

SKILL.md

Frontmatter

{
    "name": "trading-risk-gate",
    "model": "default",
    "auto-invoke": true,
    "description": "Unified pre-trade safety gate: Ruin check (Law #1), ergodicity audit, and win-rate dominance validation. Absorbs: ergodicity-check, law-of-ruin, win-rate-dominance.",
    "argument-hint": "ruin check | should I take this trade | is this safe | compare WR vs RR",
    "context_trigger": "ruin, is this safe, should I risk, veto, ergodic, sequence risk, WR vs RR, position size, Law #1, bankruptcy"
}

Trading Risk Gate (Pre-Trade Safety)

Absorbs: ergodicity-check, law-of-ruin, win-rate-dominance

Unified pre-trade gate. Answers: "Should I take this trade?" by running three checks in sequence.

Triggers

"is this safe", "should I risk", "ruin", "Law #1", "veto", "ergodic", "sequence risk", "wr vs rr", "win rate stability", "why am I losing with 1:3", "absorbing state", "all-in", "bankruptcy"

The Three-Gate Pipeline

GATE 1: Law of Ruin          GATE 2: Ergodicity           GATE 3: WR Dominance
┌─────────────────────┐     ┌─────────────────────┐     ┌─────────────────────┐
│ P(Ruin) > 5%?       │ ──▶ │ Non-ergodic?         │ ──▶ │ WR < Breakeven?     │
│ 5 Domains:          │     │ Absorbing barrier?   │     │ Variance Drag > EV? │
│ Bio/Legal/Fin/      │     │ P(survive N) < 80%?  │     │ RR structure viable? │
│ Social/Psych        │     │                      │     │                      │
│ VETO if YES ❌      │     │ VETO if YES ❌       │     │ WARN if YES ⚠️      │
└─────────────────────┘     └─────────────────────┘     └─────────────────────┘

Gate 1: Ruin Class Check (Law #1)

Layer	Domain	Event Horizon
1	Biological	Death, permanent disability
2	Legal	Incarceration, criminal record
3	Financial	Bankruptcy, margin call
4	Social	De-platforming, exile
5	Psychological	Burnout Stage 4, loss of agency

VETO if P(Ruin) > 5%. No exceptions.

Gate 2: Ergodicity Audit

Ensemble average ≠ Time average for non-ergodic processes
$P(\text{Survive } n \text{ trials}) = (1-r)^n$
Even 5% risk/trial = 0.6% survival after 100 trials
VETO if P(survival over all planned trials) < 80%

Gate 3: Win Rate Dominance

High WR / Low RR systems structurally dominate High RR / Low WR systems
Variance Drag ($V^2/2$) geometrically destroys low-WR portfolios
Validates that the system's WR sustains the chosen RR structure

Output

RISK GATE REPORT
────────────────
Gate 1 (Ruin):      [✅ PASS / ❌ VETO — domain: ...]
Gate 2 (Ergodicity): [✅ PASS / ❌ VETO — P(survival): X%]
Gate 3 (WR/RR):     [✅ PASS / ⚠️ WARN — variance drag exceeds ...]

VERDICT: [CLEARED / VETOED]