Agent Skills
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prediction-market-oracle-research
GitHub研究预测市场作为数据源或预言机信号，为产品、代理和决策提供基于事实的概率分析。强调区分信号与市场机制，警示流动性风险，并提供集成建议，严禁投资建议。
Trigger Scenarios
将预测市场用作数据源或决策智能层
需要分析市场隐含概率及其可靠性
Install
npx skills add NeverSight/learn-skills.dev --skill prediction-market-oracle-research -g -y
SKILL.md
Frontmatter
{
"name": "prediction-market-oracle-research",
"origin": "ECC",
"description": "Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice."
}
Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-securitybefore granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
Version History
- e0220ca Current 2026-07-05 23:46
