Debt Payoff Skill

The avalanche-vs-snowball debate has a correct answer (avalanche, arithmetically) and a true objection (plans people abandon save nobody anything) — and the only honest way to weigh them is to price the difference on the actual debts. Sometimes morale costs $40; sometimes it costs $4,000. This skill runs both strategies month by month with the script, shows what choosing early wins actually costs, and builds the plan around the constraint that matters most: it has to survive contact with a real budget.

What This Skill Produces

• The head-to-head — debt-free date and total interest for avalanche and snowball, simulated on the real debts
• The payoff order — which debt dies when, under the chosen strategy
• The morale price tag — what snowball's early wins cost in interest, in dollars, so the choice is informed
• The survival rules — minimum-viable version for bad months, and the windfall protocol

Required Inputs

Ask for these if not provided:

• Every debt — name, balance, APR, minimum payment; the plan is only as real as this list (and finding a forgotten debt later breaks more than math)
• The extra amount — monthly money beyond the minimums, the honest number; zero is an answer that changes the conversation to budget or income first
• Any special terms — promotional 0% windows ending (a deferred-interest cliff outranks every APR), variable rates, loans with payoff penalties (rare, but ask)
• The track record — have they started and abandoned plans before? It weighs the morale argument with evidence instead of vibes

Programmatic Helper

python3 scripts/debt_payoff.py --debt "visa:9000:24.9:180" --debt "loan:3000:6:60" --extra 200
python3 scripts/debt_payoff.py --debt "a:2000:19:50" --debt "b:9000:6:180" --extra 150 --json

Deterministic month-by-month simulation: interest accrues, minimums are paid, the surplus cascades onto the strategy's target debt, and freed-up minimums roll forward. Fixed APRs, on-time payments, no new charges — the assumptions are printed with the result.

Framework: The Choosing Rules

• Price the difference before debating it — the interest gap between strategies on these debts is a number, not a philosophy; under ~$200 it's noise and snowball's momentum wins free
• A minimum that doesn't cover interest is an emergency — a balance growing at its minimum (the script makes this visible) jumps every queue; that debt is on fire in a way the others aren't
• Deferred-interest cliffs outrank APR order — a promotional balance that back-charges all accrued interest at month 24 gets paid off before its cliff regardless of strategy
• The plan needs a bad-month setting — define now what happens when the extra can't be paid: minimums-only is a paused plan, not a failed one; the difference is whether it restarts
• Windfalls have a protocol — tax refunds and bonuses go to the current target debt by prior decision, because in-the-moment decisions about windfalls have a known winner and it isn't the debt

Output Format

Debt Payoff Plan: [N] debts, [total]

The Head-to-Head

[Script output: both strategies, dates, interest totals, the avalanche savings]

The Call

[Which strategy and why, in two sentences — citing the priced difference and the track record, not doctrine]

The Payoff Order

[Debt by debt with projected month — the countdown that makes progress visible]

Survival Rules

Bad month: [minimums-only protocol, restart trigger] · Windfalls: [target-debt rule] · Cliff watch: [any promotional deadlines, calendared]

Assumes fixed rates and no new charges — the plan's silent partner is the spending that stops. Educational model, not financial advice — verify with a licensed professional before acting on it.

Quality Checks

• Every debt appears with balance, APR, and minimum — no "roughly" balances
• The strategy choice cites the priced difference on these debts, not general doctrine
• Growing-at-minimum debts are flagged as emergencies regardless of strategy
• Promotional/deferred-interest deadlines are calendared above APR order
• The bad-month protocol exists before the first bad month

Anti-Patterns

• Do not preach avalanche when the difference is trivial — momentum is worth $40
• Do not endorse snowball without showing its price — informed morale, not managed ignorance
• Do not build a plan that requires a perfect year — perfect-year plans have a 100% failure rate
• Do not ignore the income side — past a point, the plan's bottleneck is earnings, and saying so is the honest output
• Do not touch consolidation/refinancing recommendations beyond naming them as options to research — product choice is advice territory