使用合成控制估计客户价值的增量提升（Delta CV）

In today’s competitive digital landscape, understanding user interactions with your products is essential for driving revenue and building lasting customer relationships. At PayPal, our Data Science teams use causal inference to evaluate the impact of key customer actions, such as adopting a new product or adding a credit card to their wallet, on engagement (measured by Transactions per Account, or TPA), revenue, and margin to help make data-driven strategic decisions.

在当今竞争激烈的数字环境中，了解用户与您产品的互动对于推动收入和建立持久的客户关系至关重要。在PayPal，我们的数据科学团队使用因果推断来评估关键客户行为的影响，例如采用新产品或将信用卡添加到他们的钱包中，对参与度（通过每个账户的交易数TPA衡量）、收入和利润的影响，以帮助做出基于数据的战略决策。

The direct profit from a product adoption or a user action on the app could be $0 if viewed in isolation. However, that does not necessarily mean that these events are not driving engagement and monetization across the PayPal ecosystem; they can change the user engagement with other PayPal products in such a way that the user starts generating more profit.

从产品采用或用户在应用上的行为中直接获得的利润如果孤立来看可能是$0。然而，这并不一定意味着这些事件没有推动PayPal生态系统中的参与和货币化；它们可以以某种方式改变用户与其他PayPal产品的互动，使用户开始产生更多利润。

To measure the overall impact of user actions or product adoption, we introduced Delta CV (delta in Customer Value), and we defined it as a customer’s incremental profit margin in the first year after adoption of a new product or completing an action. For example, if the average Delta CV for adoption of Crypto is $20, we expect customers who adopt Crypto for the first time to bring an additional $20 in margin on average in the next 12 months after the adoption. We define Delta Revenue (or TPA) in the same manner except we calculate the incremental lift in revenue (or TPA) instead of profit margin.

为了衡量用户行为或产品采用的整体影响，我们引入了Delta CV（客户价值的增量），并将其定义为客户在采用新产品或完成某个行动后的第一年增量利润率。例如，如果Crypto的平均Delta CV为$20，我们预计首次采用Crypto的客户在采用后的12个月内平均会带来额外的$20利润。我们以相同的方式定义Delta Revenue（或TPA），只是我们计算的是收入（或TPA）的增量提升，而不是利润率。

The concept of Delta CV is very different from customer life-time value (CLV) which estimates the total profit generated by a customer over th...