机场的需求和ETR预测

Airports currently hold a significant portion of Uber’s supply and open supply hours (i.e., supply that is not utilized, but open for dispatch) across the globe. At most airports, drivers are obligated to join a “first-in-first-out” (FIFO) queue from which they are dispatched. When the demand for trips is high relative to the supply of drivers in the queue (“undersupply”), this queue moves quickly and wait times for drivers can be quite low. However, when demand is low relative to the amount of available supply (“oversupply”), the queue moves slowly and wait times can be very high. Undersupply creates a poor experience for riders, as they are less likely to get a suitable ride. On the other hand, oversupply creates a poor experience for drivers as they are spending more time waiting for each ride and less time driving. What’s more, drivers don’t currently have a way to see when airports are under- or over-supplied, which perpetuates this problem.

目前,机场占据了全球Uber供应量和开放供应时间的很大一部分(即未使用但可派遣的供应)。在大多数机场,司机有义务加入一个 "先进先出"(FIFO)的队列,然后被派送。当出行需求相对于队列中的司机供应量较高时("供不应求"),队列中的司机会快速移动,司机的等待时间会相当短。然而,当需求相对于可用的供应量较低时("供应过剩"),队列移动缓慢,等待时间可能非常高。供应不足会给乘客带来不好的体验,因为他们不太可能得到一个合适的车。另一方面,供应过剩给司机带来了糟糕的体验,因为他们花更多的时间等待每一次乘车,而花更少的时间驾驶。更重要的是,司机目前没有办法看到机场何时供应不足或过剩,这使这个问题长期存在。

One way to tackle this undersupply/oversupply issue at airports is to forecast supply balance and use this to optimize resource allocation. Our first application of these models is in estimating the time to request (ETR) for the airport driver queue. We estimate the length of time a driver would have to wait before they receive a trip request, thereby giving drivers the information they need to identify and reposition in periods of undersupply (short waits), or to remain in the city during periods of oversupply (long waits). 

解决机场供不应求问题的一个方法是预测供应平衡,并以此来优化资源配置。我们对这些模型的第一个应用是估计机场司机队列的请求时间(ETR)。我们估计了司机在收到出行请求之前需要等待的时间,从而给司机提供了他们所需要的信息,以便在供应不足的时期(短时间的等待)识别和重新定位,或者在供应过剩的时期(长时间的等待)留在城市中。

ETR Venue Marker 

ETR场馆标示

When not on-trip, drivers can preview information about an airport...

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