AI 会像移动设备那样，成为推动消费者 AI 浪潮的巨大催化剂吗？

One of the questions I hear a lot is "will AI be as big of a catalyst for a consumer AI wave as mobile?"

我常听到的一个问题是：“AI 会像移动设备一样，成为消费者 AI 浪潮的巨大催化剂吗？”

It’s a narrow question, but still an interesting one to think through. There were three elements at play with mobile:

这是一个很窄的问题，但仍然值得思考。移动时代有三个关键因素：

1. Mobile enabled a dramatic expansion in internet minutes that were up for grabs. Rather than the zero-sum game of fighting for the limited time people spent in front of a desktop computer, suddenly there were all these new minutes up for grabs -- when someone was commuting, waiting in line, on the toilet, etc. This is why the consumer mobile wave was biased towards a particular set of players: those that offered more dopamine per minute by connecting to the internet than staying in the analog world.

1. 移动设备让可争夺的“上网分钟”急剧扩张。不再是零和地争夺人们坐在台式机前有限的上网时间，而是突然出现了大量新的可争夺分钟——通勤、排队、上厕所等等。正因如此，消费级移动浪潮偏向了特定的一类玩家：那些通过连接互联网，比留在模拟世界能提供更高“多巴胺/分钟”的人。

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This data stops in 2017. As we all know, the amount of time spent on mobile only continued to explode.

这份数据截至 2017 年。众所周知，此后人们在手机上花费的时间继续激增。

2. Mobile introduced new ingredients with which a consumer founder could build (multiple cameras, GPS chip, accelerometer), creating greenfield opportunities for startups.

2. 移动设备带来了新的“原料”，让消费级创始人可以在此基础上构建（多摄像头、GPS 芯片、加速度计），为初创公司创造了全新的机会。

3. The AppStore dramatically reduced the friction of installing a new application, making it easier for people to download apps to their heart's content.

3. AppStore 大幅降低了安装新应用的摩擦，让人们可以随心所欲地下载应用。

Now let's do a thought experiment:

现在让我们做一个思想实验：

If we didn't have (2), and we had these powerful computers in ou...