软件工程的未来两年

The software industry sits at a strange inflection point. AI coding has evolved from autocomplete on steroids to agents that can autonomously execute development tasks. The economic boom that fueled tech’s hiring spree has given way to an efficiency mandate: companies now often favor profitability over growth, experienced hires over fresh graduates, and smaller teams armed with better tools.

软件行业正处于一个奇怪的拐点。AI 编码已从类固醇增强的自动补全演变为能够自主执行开发任务的代理。推动科技招聘狂潮的经济繁荣已让位于效率要求：公司现在往往优先考虑盈利而非增长、经验丰富者而非应届毕业生，以及配备更好工具的更小团队。

Meanwhile, a new generation of developers is entering the workforce with a different calculus: pragmatic about career stability, skeptical of hustle culture, and raised on AI assistance from day one.

与此同时，新一代开发者正以不同的考量进入职场：他们对职业稳定性持务实态度，对hustle culture持怀疑态度，并且从第一天起就习惯了AI辅助。

What happens next is genuinely uncertain. Below are five critical questions that may shape software engineering through 2026, with two contrasting scenarios for each. These aren’t really predictions, but lenses for preparation. The goal is a clear roadmap for handling what comes next, grounded in current data and tempered by the healthy skepticism this community is known for.

接下来会发生什么确实不确定。下面是五个可能塑造 2026 年之前软件工程的关键问题，每个问题有两个对比情景。这些不是真正的预测，而是准备的镜头。目标是为应对接下来发生的事提供清晰路线图，以当前数据为基础，并以本社区著名的健康怀疑态度加以缓和。

1. The Junior developer question

1. 初级开发者问题

The bottom line: Junior developer hiring could collapse as AI automates entry-level tasks, or rebound as software spreads into every industry. Both futures require different survival strategies.

底线：随着 AI 自动化入门级任务，初级开发者招聘可能崩溃，或者随着软件渗透到每个行业而反弹。两种未来都需要不同的生存策略。

The traditional pathway of “learn to code, get junior job, grow into senior” is wobbling. A Harvard study of 62 million workers found that when companies adopt generative AI, junior developer employment drops by about 9-10% within six quarters, while senior employment barely budges. Big tech hired 50% fewer fresh graduates over the past three years. As one engineer cynically put it: ~”Why hire a junior for $90K when an AI coding agent costs less?”

传统的“学习编码、...