2028 全球智能危机

What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that’s actually bearish?

如果我们的 AI 看涨观点继续正确……而如果这实际上是看跌的呢？

What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this part, and he’s written two others you can find here.

以下是一个情景，而不是预测。 这不是熊市色情或 AI 末日粉丝小说。这篇文章的唯一目的是模拟一个相对未被充分探讨的情景。我们朋友 Alap Shah 提出了这个问题，我们一起头脑风暴了答案。我们写了这一部分，他写了另外两篇，你可以在这里找到。

Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.

希望阅读此文能让你更准备好应对 AI 使经济越来越诡异的潜在左尾风险。

This is the CitriniResearch Macro Memo from June 2028, detailing the progression and fallout of the Global Intelligence Crisis.

这是2028年6月的CitriniResearch宏观备忘录，详细描述了Global Intelligence Crisis的进展和后果。

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CitriniResearch

~~February 22nd, 2026~~ June 30th, 2028

The unemployment rate printed 10.2% this morning, a 0.3% upside surprise. The market sold off 2% on the number, bringing the cumulative drawdown in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs.

今早失业率公布为 10.2%，超出预期 0.3%。市场因这一数字下跌 2%，将 S&P 从 2026 年 10 月高点的累计回落幅度带至 38%。

Traders have grown numb. Six months ago, a print like this would have triggered a circuit breaker.

交易员已经麻木了。六个月前，这样的数据发布会触发熔断机制。

Two years. That’s all it took to get from “contained” and “sector-specific” to an economy that no longer resembles the one any of us grew up in. This quarter’s macro memo is our attempt to reconst...