第二轮：Netflix上因果推断应用的调查

At Netflix, we want to ensure that every current and future member finds content that thrills them today and excites them to come back for more. Causal inference is an essential part of the value that Data Science and Engineering adds towards this mission. We rely heavily on both experimentation and quasi-experimentation to help our teams make the best decisions for growing member joy.

在Netflix，我们希望确保每个现有和未来的会员今天都能找到令他们兴奋的内容，并激励他们回来寻找更多。因果推断是数据科学和工程为实现这一使命所增加的价值的重要组成部分。我们在帮助团队做出最佳决策以增加会员的快乐方面，非常依赖于实验和准实验。

Building off of our last successful Causal Inference and Experimentation Summit, we held another week-long internal conference this year to learn from our stunning colleagues. We brought together speakers from across the business to learn about methodological developments and innovative applications.

在我们上一次成功的因果推断和实验峰会的基础上，今年我们举办了为期一周的内部会议，与我们令人惊叹的同事们一起学习。我们邀请了来自业务各个领域的演讲者，了解方法论的发展和创新应用。

We covered a wide range of topics and are excited to share five talks from that conference with you in this post. This will give you a behind the scenes look at some of the causal inference research happening at Netflix!

我们涵盖了各种主题，并很高兴在本文中与您分享会议中的五个演讲。这将让您深入了解Netflix正在进行的一些因果推断研究的幕后情况！

Metrics Projection for Growth A/B Tests

增长A/B测试的指标投影

Mihir Tendulkar, Simon Ejdemyr, Dhevi Rajendran, David Hubbard, Arushi Tomar, Steve Beckett, Judit Lantos, Cody Chapman, Ayal Chen-Zion, Apoorva Lal, Ekrem Kocaguneli, Kyoko Shimada

Mihir Tendulkar，Simon Ejdemyr，Dhevi Rajendran，David Hubbard，Arushi Tomar，Steve Beckett，Judit Lantos，Cody Chapman，Ayal Chen-Zion，Apoorva Lal，Ekrem Kocaguneli，Kyoko Shimada

Experimentation is in Netflix’s DNA. When we launch a new product feature, we use — where possible — A/B test results to estimate the annualized incremental impact on the business.

实验是Netflix的基因。当我们推出新的产品功能时，我们尽可能使用A/B测试结果来估计对业务的年化增量影响。

Historically, that estimate has come from our Finance, Strategy, & Analytics (FS&A) partners. For each test cell in an experiment, they manually forecast signups, retention probabilities, and cumulative revenue on a one...