Shopify数据的机会大小指南

For every initiative that a business takes on, there is an opportunity potential and a cost—the cost of not doing something else. But how do you tangibly determine the size of an opportunity?

对于企业采取的每一项举措，都有一个潜在的机会和成本--不做其他事情的成本。但是，你如何有形地确定一个机会的大小？

Opportunity sizing is a method that data scientists can use to quantify the potential impact of an initiative ahead of making the decision to invest in it. Although businesses attempt to prioritize initiatives, they rarely do the math to assess the opportunity, relying instead on intuition-driven decision making. While this type of decision making does have its place in business, it also runs the risk of being easily swayed by a number of subtle biases, such as information available, confirmation bias, or our intrinsic desire to pattern-match a new decision to our prior experience.

机会大小是一种方法，数据科学家可以用它来量化一项举措的潜在影响，然后再决定对其进行投资。尽管企业试图对举措进行优先排序，但他们很少进行数学计算来评估机会，而是依靠直觉驱动的决策。虽然这种类型的决策在商业中确实有它的位置，但它也有容易被一些微妙的偏见所左右的风险，如可用的信息，确认偏见，或我们内在的愿望，将一个新的决定与我们以前的经验进行模式匹配。

At Shopify, our data scientists use opportunity sizing to help our product and business leaders make sure that we’re investing our efforts in the most impactful initiatives. This method enables us to be intentional when checking and discussing the assumptions we have about where we can invest our efforts.

在Shopify，我们的数据科学家使用机会大小来帮助我们的产品和业务领导人确保我们的努力投入到最有影响的举措中。这种方法使我们能够在检查和讨论关于我们可以在哪里投资努力的假设时有意识地进行。

Here’s how we think about opportunity sizing.

以下是我们对机会大小的思考。

Opportunity sizing is more than just a tool for numerical reasoning, it’s a framework businesses can use to have a principled conversation about the impact of their efforts.

机会大小不仅仅是一个数字推理的工具，它是一个企业可以用来对其努力的影响进行有原则的对话的框架。

An example of opportunity sizing could look like the following equation: if we build feature X, we will acquire MM (+/- delta) new active users in T timeframe under DD assumptions.

机会规模的一个例子可能看起来像下面的方程式：如果我们建立了X功能，在DD假设下，我们将在T时间框架内获得MM（+/-delta）新的活跃用户。

So how do we calculate this equation? Well, first things first, although the timeframe for opportun...