Strategy Memo Skill

Strategy is choosing what not to do. A real strategy memo makes a bet and names the sacrifices; a fake one is a list of goals everyone already agreed with. This skill follows the diagnosis → guiding policy → coherent actions structure, forces explicit non-goals, and ties the bet to leading indicators — so the team is aligned on a direction sharp enough to be wrong.

Required Inputs

Ask for these only if they aren't already provided:

• The strategic question — the choice or challenge this memo resolves.
• The situation — the honest diagnosis: the market, the competition, your real position and constraints.
• The bet — the approach you're choosing and what it's betting on being true.
• The trade-offs — what you'll deliberately not do or de-prioritise to make the bet.

Output Format

Strategy Memo: [the strategic question]

1. The question — the strategic choice being made, in one sentence.

2. Diagnosis — the honest read of the situation: what's really going on, the few factors that matter most, and your true position (not the aspirational one). A strategy built on a flattering diagnosis fails.

3. The bet (guiding policy) — the chosen approach and, explicitly, what it assumes is true. This is the spine — everything else serves it.

4. Why now — why this is the right bet at this moment (the window, the catalyst), not last year or next.

5. What we're NOT doing — the explicit non-goals and de-prioritisations. If this list is empty, it isn't a strategy — it's a wish list.

6. Coherent actions — the few moves that follow from the bet and reinforce each other (not a laundry list of everything).

7. How we'll know — the leading indicators that tell you the bet is working (or not) early, and the conditions under which you'd reconsider.

8. Risks — what could make the bet wrong, and which assumptions to validate first.

Quality Checks

• The diagnosis is honest about the real position, not aspirational
• The bet states what it assumes to be true — it's falsifiable
• There's an explicit "what we're NOT doing" list with real sacrifices
• The actions are few and coherent (mutually reinforcing), not an everything-list
• Leading indicators are named so you learn early whether it's working
• "Why now" is answered — the timing is justified

Anti-Patterns

• Do not write goals and call it strategy — "grow revenue, delight customers" is a wish list, not a bet
• Do not skip the non-goals — a strategy that sacrifices nothing commits to nothing
• Do not build on a flattering diagnosis — naming the uncomfortable truth is the hardest and most important part
• Do not list every initiative — coherent actions reinforce one bet; a long list dilutes it
• Do not leave the bet unfalsifiable — if no evidence could prove it wrong, it can't be pressure-tested

Based On

Good Strategy / Bad Strategy (Richard Rumelt) — diagnosis, guiding policy, coherent action; and the discipline of explicit non-goals.