pm-pulse

Today is ${today}. Read memory/MEMORY.md before starting.

Voice

If soul/SOUL.md and soul/STYLE.md are populated, read both and match the operator's voice in the notification. If empty or absent, write in a clear, direct, neutral tone — punchy, lowercase, position first, no hedging.

Why this skill exists

Prediction markets sit at the intersection of regulation, mechanism design, and on-chain liquidity. Most existing crypto skills cover token prices; none cover the PM ecosystem with enough depth to feed articles and newsletters. This skill runs weekly, surfaces the signal, and keeps a configurable list of platforms and mechanisms under continuous review.

Configuration

Read memory/topics/prediction-markets.md for the operator's tracked platforms and prior baseline.

If memory/topics/prediction-markets.md doesn't exist, create it with a neutral seed:

# Prediction Market & Coordination Market Tracker

*Last run: never*

## Platforms
- Polymarket
- Kalshi

## Known Protocols
- (populated by this skill over time)

## Key Stats
- Polymarket weekly volume: unknown
- Kalshi weekly volume: unknown
- New PM launches (last 7d): unknown

## Signal Log
- ${today}: skill initialized.

Extract from the file:

• platforms — list of tracked platforms (default: Polymarket, Kalshi)
• known_protocols — list of known PM/coordination-market protocols (used to detect newly-discovered ones)
• <platform>_vol_last — last known weekly volume for each platform (or "unknown")

1. Load current context

Read memory/MEMORY.md for any PM-related notes and the last 7 days of memory/logs/ to dedup.

2. Search for developments

For each platform in the configured list, run a WebSearch:

WebSearch: "<platform> volume ${year} site:theblock.co OR site:dlnews.com OR site:coindesk.com OR site:blockworks.co"

Also run these general searches:

WebSearch: "prediction market coordination market new launch mechanism ${year}"
WebSearch: "reflexive market manipulation futarchy coordination ${year}"
WebSearch: "CLARITY Act crypto prediction market legislation ${year}"

Collect all hits. Keep only items from the last 7 days. Discard vague opinion pieces — keep launches, volume milestones, regulatory actions, funding rounds, and new mechanism designs.

3. Fetch current volume and market data

For the top platform in the list, WebFetch the public homepage and look for total volume figures, trending markets, and notable new market categories. If WebFetch returns limited data, fall back to WebSearch: "<platform> volume this week ${year}".

Also check:

• WebSearch: "<each other platform> volume monthly ${year}"
• WebSearch: "prediction market AMM mechanism design ${year}"

4. Scan for regulatory moves

WebSearch: "CLARITY Act Senate status ${year}"
WebSearch: "CFTC prediction market ruling ${year}"
WebSearch: "Kalshi sports betting approval new states ${year}"
WebSearch: "prediction market SEC CFTC jurisdiction ${year}"

Flag CLARITY Act progress, CFTC rulings, state-level approvals, and international PM regulatory moves (EU, UK, Australia).

5. Scan for new protocol launches and mechanism innovations

WebSearch: '"prediction market" launch funding ${year} site:techcrunch.com OR site:theblock.co OR site:dlnews.com'
WebSearch: "futarchy coordination market token governance ${year}"
WebSearch: "prediction market AMM LS-LMSR CPMM new design ${year}"

Also check GitHub for new PM protocol repos:

gh api "search/repositories?q=prediction+market+in:description+in:topics&sort=updated&per_page=20" \
  --jq '.items[] | {full_name, description, stargazers_count, updated_at, topics}'

If gh api fails, fall back to WebSearch: "prediction market protocol github ${year}".

From results:

• Flag any protocol not in known_protocols
• Note the mechanism design novelty (reflexive? AMM? futarchy? opinion market?)
• Star count as proxy for developer traction

5b. Competitive intelligence — platforms, new entrants, oracle/resolution

Beyond volume and protocol launches, track what the platforms themselves are shipping and who is entering the market. This is product-level competitive intelligence, not individual-market price tracking (that's monitor-polymarket's job).

Per-platform product intel. For each platform in the configured list:

WebSearch: "<platform>" new feature OR product OR launch ${year}

For the top two platforms by configured priority (or, lacking priority info, the first two in the list), also WebFetch their homepages and scan for new market categories, product-copy changes, or new sections. Note what each platform is shipping.

New entrants and funding.

WebSearch: prediction market startup funding seed OR Series ${year}
WebSearch: coordination market OR "reflexive market" startup launch ${year}

For each new entrant: what they do, who funded them, and how they differ from the incumbents. Cross-check against known_protocols so a genuinely new name is flagged (and feeds step 5's new-launch signal).

Oracle and resolution-layer changes.

WebSearch: prediction market oracle UMA resolution dispute ${year}
WebSearch: prediction market AMM OR LMSR OR oracle mechanism ${year}

Note any change to how markets are created, resolved, or have liquidity provided — the resolution layer constrains which mechanism designs are viable.

Synthesis verdict. In one opinionated paragraph answer: what are incumbents still not doing that a new entrant could (product gap)? Is anyone new entering (threat/opportunity)? Is the environment opening or closing for permissionless PM creation (regulatory window)? Any resolution-layer change worth noting (oracle/infra)? If soul/SOUL.md defines a thesis or angle, apply it; otherwise write a neutral one-paragraph read. Quiet weeks are useful signal — say "all quiet" explicitly. One opinionated paragraph beats five neutral bullets.

6. Score the week

Momentum levels:

• 0–2: quiet week
• 3–6: building
• 7–10: accelerating
• 11+: breakout

7. Update memory/topics/prediction-markets.md

Rewrite with:

• Updated *Last run: ${today}*
• Updated Key Stats (platform volume, new protocols)
• Updated Known Protocols (add newly discovered)
• A ## Competitive Intel section (create it if absent) when step 5b surfaces a material change — note what each tracked platform shipped, any new entrant, and any oracle/resolution change. Update existing entries rather than duplicating.
• Appended entry to Signal Log:

  - ${today}: [top development in one line] / momentum: [level]
  

8. Send notification via ./notify -f

Write to .pending-notify-temp/pm-pulse-${today}.md, then:

./notify -f .pending-notify-temp/pm-pulse-${today}.md

Create .pending-notify-temp/ if it doesn't exist.

Format:

pm pulse — ${today}

momentum: {level} ({score} pts)

{IF regulatory_development}
regulatory:
{forEach top regulatory items}
- {one-line, direct take}
{end}
{end}

{IF volume_milestone}
volume: {platform milestone in one line}
{end}

{IF new_protocols_or_mechanisms}
new mechanisms ({count}):
{forEach top 2 items}
- {name/project}: {what makes it different} ({stars}★ if GH)
{end}
{end}

{IF competitive_intel}
competitive:
{forEach top 2–3 platform/entrant/oracle items}
- {platform or entrant}: {what shipped / what's new / how they differ}
{end}
{end}

{IF notable_signals}
signals:
{forEach top 2–3 news items}
- {one-line}
{end}
{end}

{IF synthesis}
read: {one-line opinionated synthesis — gap, threat, regulatory window, or "all quiet"}
{end}

{IF quiet_week}
quiet week. incumbents still running.
{end}

Keep total under 1200 chars (the competitive + read lines widen the budget slightly over the old 900). If tight, the read: synthesis line and the competitive: block are the first to trim — momentum, regulatory, and volume are the must-haves. Do NOT use ./notify "$(cat ...)" — write the file first, pass the path.

If momentum score is 0 and no regulatory news and no new protocols: log PM_PULSE_OK: quiet and skip notification.

9. Log to memory/logs/${today}.md

Append:

## PM Pulse
- **Platforms covered:** {list}
- **Volume (7d):** {summary or N/A}
- **Regulatory developments:** {count} ({top item if any})
- **New protocols/mechanisms:** {count}
- **Competitive intel:** {platforms shipping / new entrants / oracle changes — one line, or "quiet"}
- **New entrants:** {names or "none"}
- **Synthesis:** {one-line read or "all quiet"}
- **Momentum score:** {score} ({level})
- **Notification:** sent / skipped (quiet)
- PM_PULSE_OK

Sandbox Note

• gh api uses the gh CLI — handles auth internally, no env-var expansion in headers.
• WebFetch and WebSearch: built-in Claude tools, bypass the GitHub Actions sandbox network gate.
• Platform homepages may return limited data via WebFetch — WebSearch fallback is the primary path for volume figures.

What to watch for (recurring signal classes)

• Regulatory progress — CLARITY Act, CFTC rulings, state-level approvals. Each step feeds an article.
• Tracked platform volume trajectory — weekly volume is the best adoption signal.
• New market approvals — each new category approved (sports, politics, macro) extends the regulatory blueprint.
• New reflexive / coordination market launches — any protocol designing for market-influences-outcome dynamics.
• Academic mechanism design — futarchy implementations, LS-LMSR improvements, new AMM structures for PMs.
• Funding rounds — who's getting capitalized and at what valuation signals institutional conviction.
• Regulatory setbacks — enforcement actions, market shutdowns, bill stalling.
• Competitive / product moves — what incumbents ship (new categories, features), who's entering, and resolution-layer changes (oracle disputes, new resolution mechanisms). Product-level intel, not individual-market prices.

Output feeds

• article skill — PM Pulse data feeds coordination-markets and regulatory articles
• monitor-polymarket — paired with this skill's macro signal
• topic-momentum — PM/coordination signal now has dedicated weekly data
• weekly-newsletter — regulatory moves and volume milestones slot into the infra section