Building confidence in a decision

Building confidence in a decision

摘要

This is the fifth post in a multi-part series on how Netflix uses A/B tests to inform decisions and continuously innovate on our products. Need to catch up? Have a look at Part 1 (Decision Making at Netflix), Part 2 (What is an A/B Test?), Part 3 (False positives and statistical significance), and Part 4 (False negatives and power). Subsequent posts will go into more details on experimentation across Netflix, how Netflix has invested in infrastructure to support and scale experimentation, and the importance of developing a culture of experimentation within an organization.

In Parts 3 (False positives and statistical significance) and 4 (False negatives and power), we discussed the core statistical concepts that underpin A/B tests: false positives, statistical significance and p-values, as well as false negatives and power. Here, we’ll get to the hard part: how do we use test results to support decision making in a complex business environment?

The unpleasant reality about A/B testing is that no test result is a certain reflection of the underlying truth. As we discussed in previous posts, good practice involves first setting and understanding the false positive rate, and then designing an experiment that is well powered so it is likely to detect true effects of reasonable and meaningful magnitudes. These concepts from statistics help us reduce and understand error rates and make good decisions in the face of uncertainty. But there is still no way to know whether the result of a specific experiment is a false positive or a false negative.